If the economy isn’t hitting the Rocky Mountain Ski Resorts the weather certainly will. And it’s not the sort of snow dumping, wind chilling, nose numbing type of weather that leaves the rest of the country paralyzed, but skiers with a “mile wide grin,” and a mission to drive up I70 at the next available opportunity.
No. It’s warm. It’s wet. And it isn’t snow. And it will only get worse. At least so say University of Colorado at Boulder geography Professor Mark Williams and Brian Lazar of Stratus Consulting Inc.
Williams and Lazar predict in a new study that due to global warming, snowlines will rise and ski seasons will become shorter over the next century. And, by 2100, in some areas, any precipitation will fall as rain.
Snow Makers the Solution? It takes a lot of energy and water to make snow.
The researchers also predict that to stay competitive ski resorts will have to start manufacturing their own snow. However, finding the water to make snow is no mean feat in the Rocky Mountain States. Williams predicts that it will require the diversion and storage of large amounts of water. And water is already a scarce commodity.
“The bottom line is that in order to survive, these ski areas will need to find the necessary water wherever they can and hold it in storage to satisfy future snowmaking needs,” Williams said in a university press release. “Ski resort operators are really scrambling,”
William’s and Lazar’s study combined temperature and precipitation data for Aspen Park and Park City Mountain with climate circulation models to come up with the predictions. They presented three different scenarios for the future: a best case scenario where we curb our carbon emissions and slow down warming, a “business-as-usual” scenario where our carbon emissions stay at the rate that they are currently and a worst case scenario where the CO2 emissions will increase over the current rate.
Under each of the emissions scenarios the length of the ski seasons will become shorter, and under the high-emissions scenario the researchers predict that Park City will have no snowpack at its base by 2100. Unfortunately, in he last five years, the global CO2 emissions have already exceeded the worst-case scenario.
Williams and Lazar predict that all the states in the Rocky Mountains will be affected and that the key to their survival will be in their ability to adapt. For example they suggest that Aspen Mountain will have to triple its snowmaking efforts in the coming decades requiring the resort to obtain 50 cubic feet per second of water per month. Obtaining this amount of water would drain local streams and rivers and disturb their ecosystems so resorts would have to look further afield for their water.
Therefore, the researchers predict that in the future the resorts will follow the example of ski areas in Europe who are already making snow in order to survive. These resorts use water transported from basin to basin over long distances and stored at high elevations to create the snow required. In the Italian Alps, 70 percent of skiable terrain is currently covered by artificial snow.
However, transporting water and making snow are both carbon intensive processes. Add to that the carbon cost of shuttling people up the mountain, transporting in the latest batch of european tourists, and people driving in from out of state, and you are looking at a steady increase in carbon emissions. And all these factors will not only reduce the snowpack but also the quantity of water available to make snow.
While such a study proves valuable in helping the ski industry prepare for the next few years predicting scenarios ninety years from now independent of population growth and demands on water resources seems somewhat naive.
Unless serious attempts are made towards long term sustainability, it could be that our greatest concern in 2100 will not be where to ski but where to find water to drink.
Tags: Aspen, Brain Lazur, Colorado University, Drought, global warming, higher snowlines, Mark Williams, Park City, Rocky Mountain Ski Resorts, Rocky Mountain States, Rocky Mountain Water, shortened ski seasons, Water Shortages
